December 2015   Volume 5 | Issue 12
New Reports Research On The Horizon Information
> CME
> EEX
> ICIS Heren
> Milan Stock Exchange
> New England ISO
> SNAM Rete Gas
> PJM Spark Outlook 2016-19
> Basic Materials Observer: Copper and Gold Forecast
> Scheduled Market Changes
> Completed Market Changes
> Upcoming Events
> Contact Us
> Feedback

New Reports - Commodity DataServer


CME

Morningstar now offers the following from the CME:
  UK Natural Gas Continuous Daily Future Settlement
  Dutch Natural Gas Continuous Daily Future Settlement

Ex. Symbol: CME.NDE_D01
Ex. Path: TopRelation:Futures:Cme:CmeNDE:Continuous:
Granularity: Daily

Ex. Symbol: CME.TDE_D01
Ex. Path: TopRelation:Futures:Cme:CmeTDE:Continuous:
Granularity: Daily

New Reports - Commodity DataServer and Marketplace


CME

Morningstar now offers the following from CME:
  CBOT Intraday Futures

Path: TopRelation:Futures:Cbot
Ex. Description: CBOT: Corn Futures: Composite Session
Ex. Symbol: C.C_2016H
Granularity: Minutely
Ex. Feed: CME_CbotFuturesIntraday
Ex. Key: @ZC6H

EEX

Morningstar now offers the following from EEX:
  NBP Gas Futures

Path: TopRelation:Energy:EuropeanNaturalGas:UKNaturalGas:Eex:Futures:NBPNaturalGas:
Ex. Description: EEX Futures NBP Natural Gas Futures
Ex. Symbol: EEX.NBP_2016F
Granularity: Daily
Ex. Feed: Eex_GasFuturesMarketResultsEGIX_PriceAndVolume
Ex. Key: G9BM;JAN16

ICIS

Morningstar now offers the following from ICIS Heren:
  Heren EDEM Report, Holiday Indices Daily Data for Czech Republic, Germany, Hungary and France
  Heren ESGM, Day-Ahead Turkey Prices

Path: TopRelation:Energy:EuropeanElectricity:HolidayIndices:
Ex. Description: Heren EDEM Report, Czech Republic Peak Holiday Indices Daily Data
Ex. Symbol: HEREN.EDEM.CZECH.REPUBLIC.PEAK.HOLIDAY.INDICES.20150525
Granularity: Daily
Ex. Feed: Heren_EDEM_CzechHolidayIndices
Ex. Key: 25/05/2015;Baseload

Path: TopRelation:Energy:EuropeanNaturalGas:Turkey:Heren:
Ex. Description: Heren ESGM, Turkey Prices, Day-Ahead
Ex. Symbol: HEREN.ESGM.TURKEY_DA
Granularity: Daily
Ex. Feed: Heren_ESGM_TurkishGasPrices
Ex. Key: Day-ahead

New England ISO

Morningstar now offers the following from New England ISO:
  ISONE Net Committment Period Compensation - Economic
  ISONE Net Committment Period Compensation - External Location Economic
  ISONE Net Committment Period Compensation - Generator Performance Auditing
  ISONE Net Committment Period Compensation- High Voltage Var
  ISONE Net Committment Period Compensation - Local Secon Contingency
  ISONE Net Committment Period Compensation - Non High Voltage Var

Path: TopRelation:Energy:Electricity:Iso:NewEngland:Ncpc
Ex. Description: ISONE Net Committment Period Compensation - Economic
Granularity: Daily
Ex. Feed: Isone_NCPCEconomic

Path: TopRelation:Energy:Electricity:Iso:NewEngland:Ncpc
Ex. Description: ISONE Net Committment Period Compensation - External Location Economic
Granularity: Hourly
Ex. Feed: Isone_NCPCExternalLocationEconomic

Path: TopRelation:Energy:Electricity:Iso:NewEngland:Ncpc
Ex. Description: ISONE Net Committment Period Compensation - Generator Performance Auditing
Granularity: Daily
Ex. Feed: Isone_NCPCGeneratorPerformanceAuditing

Path: TopRelation:Energy:Electricity:Iso:NewEngland:Ncpc
Ex. Description: ISONE Net Committment Period Compensation- High Voltage Var
Granularity: Hourly
Ex. Feed: Isone_NCPCHighVoltageVar

Path: TopRelation:Energy:Electricity:Iso:NewEngland:Ncpc
Ex. Description: ISONE Net Committment Period Compensation - Local Second Contingency
Granularity: Daily
Ex. Feed: Isone_NCPCLocalSecondContingency

Path: TopRelation:Energy:Electricity:Iso:NewEngland:Ncpc
Ex. Description: ISONE Net Committment Period Compensation - Non High Voltage Var
Granularity: Hourly
Ex. Feed: Isone_NCPCNonHighVoltageVar

Milan Stock Exchange

Morningstar now offers the following from Milan Stock Exchange/Borsa Italiana:
  MSE: GDEX Power Baseload Futures
  MSE: GDEX Power Peakload Futures

Path: TopRelation:Futures:Mse:
Ex. Description: MSE: GDEX Power Baseload Futures
Ex. Symbol: MSE.GDEX.B
Granularity: Daily
Ex. Feed: MSE_IDEXFutures
Ex. Key: GDEX6F

SNAM

Morningstar now offers the following from SNAM Rete Gas:
  SNAM Rete Gas Italy - Balancing Market

Path: TopRelation:Energy:EuropeanNaturalGas:Italy:Snam:BalancingMarket
Ex. Description: SNAM Rete Gas Italy, SCS GJ
Ex. Symbol: SNAM.RETE.GAS_SCS.GJ
Granularity: Daily
Ex. Feed: SnamReteGas_BalancingMarket
Ex. Key: SCS GJ

Commodities Research


PJM Term Outlook 2016-19: Raising Spark Spread Forecast but New-Build Overhang Remains

After retiring 9.8 GW in 2015, PJM was able to clear at what we think was a respectable $24/MW West Hub on-peak spark spread versus Tetco-M3 in 2015 considering the mild summer. Since March, the 2017 and 2018 PJM spark spreads have sold off in dramatic fashion—a reasonable reaction to the new Marcellus-hungry combined-cycle fleet coming online in 2016-19. We believe PJM sparks are correctly in backwardation, but we are raising our 2016-19 spark spread forecast for several reasons. In a lower-for-longer Marcellus gas price world, we think coal generation will set marginal prices more often as the most expensive fuel during on-peak hours (besides fuel oil). There are still 52 GW of coal in the PJM stack, and much of it will still be needed to solve on-peak load. The story for 2015 was retirements, and the story for 2016-19 will be the new coal power floor reflecting rising environmental costs, less off-peak dispatch and shorter amortization period of VOM costs as life cycles shorten. We believe that some of the fixed costs will be recouped with a higher capacity price offer, but higher variable costs will need to be recouped in the energy market. This indicates bullish PJM spark spreads but does not fully offset the bearish impacts of the 18.5 GW of new combined cycles coming online burning cheap Marcellus gas.

Basic Materials Observer - Copper and Gold Price Forecast

Gold


Fed rate hike worries have created an opportunity to buy gold miners at a discount. The market is rightly concerned about the impact of higher rates on investor demand for gold. But a narrow focus on investor demand overstates its importance to gold's long-term outlook. The next decade will see a profound shift in gold's nature: from a "financial" commodity to a "consumer" commodity. The massive investment flows into (and out of) gold in the past several years temporarily concealed this development, but going forward, consumer spending will be too great to mask any longer.

Copper

The outlook for copper prices is worse than most think. Battered copper mining stocks may now screen as cheap, but we see further downside. Copper price declines of the past few months have caused many analysts to pare their near-term price forecasts. Yet longer term, most remain bullish, citing copper's geological scarcity and continued, albeit slower, Chinese demand growth. Most analysts forecast an eventual recovery to $2.25-$3.00 per pound, an outlook that informs aggressive price targets on copper mining stocks.
For more information about Morningstar Research or to recieve the full reports please email Commodity-research@morningstar.com


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