Morningstar Commodity Data Newsletter
August 2015   Volume 5 | Issue 8
New Reports Research On The Horizon Information
> CME
> ICIS
> Morningstar
> National Home Builders Association
> Nasdaq
> PJM Capacity Performanace in line with expectations
> Energy Observer
> Scheduled Market Changes
> Completed Market Changes
> Upcoming Events
> Contact Us
> Feedback

Morningstar is pleased to announce the availability of the following data sets.
Please note our new Morningstar Implied Volatility Reports.
To add any optional offering to your Morningstar data feed, please contact your Sales Director or email commoditydata-sales@morningstar.com.

New Reports - Marketplace


Morningstar Implied Vols

Morningstar now offers Implied Vol Calculations on EEX Phelix Base Power Options

Feed: Morningstar_EEXImpliedVolPhelixBase
Ex. Key: Year;C;27;2015-12-10;201601
Granularity: Daily

NAHB

Morningstar now offers the following from National Home Builders Association:
  NAHB Single Family Housing Market Index
  NAHB Housing Market Index - National and Regional

Feed: NAHB_WellsFargoHMIandSingleFamilyHousingStarts
Ex. Key: Product=Housing Market Index
Granularity: Monthly

Feed: NAHB_WellsFargoNationalandRegionalHMI
Ex. Key: Product=NATIONAL Housing Market Index
Granularity: Monthly

Nasdaq

Morningstar now offers the following from the Nasdaq Futures Exchange:
  Energy Futures

Feed: NasdaqFuturesExchange_EnergyFutures
Ex. Key: AODQF6
Granularity: Daily

New Reports - Commodity DataServer


ICIS Heren

Morningstar now offers the following from ICIS Heren:
  Heren French Day Ahead Peaks Index
  Heren German Day Ahead Peaks Index
  Heren Hungarian Daily Index
  Heren Hungarian Day Ahead Peaks Index
  Heren UK Day Ahead Peaks Index

Symbol: HEREN.EDEM.FRENCH.DAY.AHEAD.PEAK.INDEX
Ex. Path: TopRelation:Energy:EuropeanElectricity:FRANCElectricity:Heren
Granularity: Daily

Symbol: HEREN.EDEM.GERMAN.DAY.AHEAD.PEAK.INDEX
Ex. Path: TopRelation:Energy:EuropeanElectricity:DEUElectricity:Heren
Granularity: Daily

Symbol: HEREN.EDEM.HUNGARIAN.DAILY.INDEX
Ex. Path: TopRelation:Energy:EuropeanElectricity:Hungary:Heren
Granularity: Daily

Symbol: HEREN.EDEM.HUNGARIAN.DAY.AHEAD.PEAK.INDEX
Ex. Path: TopRelation:Energy:EuropeanElectricity:Hungary:Heren
Granularity: Daily

Symbol: HEREN.EDEM.UK.DAY.AHEAD.PEAK.INDEX
Ex. Path: TopRelation:Energy:EuropeanElectricity:UKElectricity:Heren
Granularity: Daily

New Reports - Commodity DataServer and Marketplace


CME

Morningstar now offers the following from the CME:
  CME UK Natural Gas Daily Future Settlement Prices
  CME Dutch Natural Gas Daily Future Settlement Prices

Feed: CME_UKNaturalGasDailyFutureNDE
Ex. Key: NDE5U_01
Ex. Path and Symbol: TopRelation:Futures:Cme:CmeNDE:Year2015:September:CME.NDE_2015U01
Granularity: Daily

Feed: CME_DutchNaturalGasDailyFutureTDE
Ex. Key: TDE5U_01
Ex. Path and Symbol: TopRelation:Futures:Cme:CmeTDE:Year2015:September:CME.TDE_2015U01
Granularity: Daily

ICIS Heren

Morningstar now offers the following from ICIS Heren:
  Heren EDCM Carbon Exchange CER Price
  Heren EDCM Carbon German Spark Dark Spreads
  Heren EDCM Carbon ICE EUA
  Heren EDCM Carbon Uk Spark Dark Spreads
  Heren CSD Daily Year Index
  Heren CSD Coal German Dark Spreads
  Heren CSD Coal UK Dark Spreads

Feed: Heren_EDCM_CarbonExchangeCer
Ex. Key: Dec'15
Ex. Path: TopRelation:Energy:Air:Heren:Prices:CarbonExchangeCER
Granularity: Daily

Feed: Heren_EDCM_CarbonGermanSparkDarkSpreads
Ex. Key August'15
Ex. Path: TopRelation:Energy:Air:Heren:Spreads:CarbonGerman
Granularity: Daily

Feed: Heren_EDCM_CarbonIceEua
Ex. Key Dec'15
Ex. Path: TopRelation:Energy:Air:Heren:Spreads:CarbonUK
Granularity: Daily

Feed: Heren_EDCM_CarbonUKSparkDarkSpreads
Ex. Key August'15
Ex. Path: TopRelation:Energy:Air:Heren:Spreads:CarbonUK
Granularity: Daily

Feed: Heren_CSD_CoalDailyYearIndex
Ex. Key Year 2016
Ex. Path: TopRelation:Energy:Coal:Heren:Indices:Annual
Granularity: Daily

Feed: Heren_CSD_CoalGermanDarkSpreads
Ex. Key August'15
Ex. Path: TopRelation:Energy:Coal:SparkSpreads:Heren:German
Granularity: Daily

Feed: Heren_CSD_CoalUKDarkSpreads
Ex. Key August'15
Ex. Path: TopRelation:Energy:Coal:SparkSpreads:Heren:Uk
Granularity: Daily

Commodities Research


PJM Capacity Performanace in line with expectations

After delaying the base residual auction 3 months to gain FERC approval of the new CP product, PJM posted the results of the 2018-19 auction Friday afternoon. CP in the RTO region cleared slightly above expectations at $164.77/MW-Day, above the market’s tempered expectations of ~$155/MW-Day before the auction. The big upside surprise to the market was the base capacity resource constraint clearing only ~$15 below CP in every region except PPL. While base capacity only represents 20% of total generation clearing, market participants had expected ~$80-$100 base discount to CP in all regions. Breakout regions that reached transmission limits and had to bid on more costly internal generation include EMAAC and COMED which cleared $225 and $215, respectively. The COMED breakout is likely due to the increased generation needed after PJM abolished the short-term resource procurement target (629 MW in 2017-18). We also believe Byron and Quad Cities continue to submit uncompetitive offers and did not clear. In all, 166,836 unforced megawatts were procured in the auction with 133,468 MW exposed to the new CP penalties. About 3,000 MW of new generation cleared the auction; almost all gas CC’s and CT’s. As previously detailed, the increases in pricing were driven by increased penalties imposed in a CP world but tempered by penalties already priced into the existing regime (shortage pricing).

Energy Observer - Lower for longer: How low-cost supply affects the domestic natural gas complex

U.S. gas production is likely to slow in the near term as oil-directed drilling hits the brakes, but the wealth of low-cost inventory in areas like the Marcellus and Utica—as well as associated volumes from oil-rich areas like the Permian—points to continued growth through the end of this decade and beyond, aided by durable efficiency gains in the form of faster cycle times and improved recovery rates. Based on our analysis of how drilling and completion costs are likely to trend given the competitive dynamics within the upstream-services value chain, along with our examination of well-level returns for each of the major producing areas in the Lower 48, we estimate that a midcycle price for U.S. natural gas of $4 per thousand cubic feet will be required to meet the more than 20 bcf/d of incremental consumption we forecast by 2020. While the next few years will be challenging for exploration and production companies and services firms, we expect cash flow, profitability, and returns on capital to approach pre-oil-crash levels by the end of the decade, with a recovery beginning in earnest in 2017. Even with the prospect of ongoing weakness in the domestic oil and gas markets, undervalued, cost-advantaged investment opportunities remain.

For more information about Morningstar Research or to recieve the full reports please email Commodity-research@morningstar.com

On the Horizon

Scheduled Market Changes

No scheduled changes at this time.

Please visit our website for any updated market changes.

Completed Market Changes

Morningstar has successfully completed the following maintenance items:
  Liquidity Partners
Effective August 31, 2015, we will be processing the new file from Liquidity Partners which includes a new format. Clients should not see any disruption in service as this is a back-end change.


Upcoming Events

Morningstar's Sr. Commodities Analyst, Jordan Grimes will be presenting “The Outlook for Northeastern Power & Gas” at the 2015 Fall NAEMA conference in Las Vegas on October 16th. We look forward to seeing those who will be attendance!

Please visit our website to discover other events Morningstar will be attending.


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