Morningstar Commodity Data Newsletter

December 2016   Volume 6 | Issue 8
New Sources New Reports Research On The Horizon Information
> CENACE
> National Bank of Poland
> Central Bank of Russia
> ERCOT
> GIE
> USDA
> New England Winter Outlook
> OPEC and NOPEC Cuts to Benefit U.S. Crude Exports
> Behind the Scenes
> ClipperData
> EPEX Spot
> Upcoming Events
> Contact Us
> Give us your feedback!

New Sources - Commodity DataServer and Marketplace


CENACE

Morningstar now offers the following 3 feeds from CENACE:

 Daily Local Marginal Pricing Data by Region and Nodal Code

Ex. DW3 Path: TopRelation:Energy:Electricity:Iso:CENACEIso:LocalMarginalPricing:MDA
Ex. DW3 Symbol: BAJA_CALIFORNIA.07ACU.115
Granularity: Daily
Ex. Marketplace Feed:
Ex. Marketplace Key:


 Daily Mexican Distribution Zone Price Data by Region and Node

Ex. DW3 Path: TopRelation:Energy:Electricity:Iso:CENACEIso:DayAheadZonal
Ex. DW3 Symbol: ACAPULCO.NACIONAL
Granularity: Daily
Ex. Marketplace Feed:
Ex. Marketplace Key:


 Daily Mexican Auxiliary Energy Pricing Data by Zone and Reserve

Ex. DW3 Path: TopRelation:Energy:Electricity:Iso:CENACEIso:AncillaryService:Mda
Ex. DW3 Symbol: BAJA_CALIFORNIA.10 MINUTE_NON_SPINNING_RESERVE.BCA
Granularity: Daily
Ex. Marketplace Feed:
Ex. Marketplace Key:

National Bank of Poland

Morningstar now offers the following feeds from the National Bank of Poland:

 Foreign Exchange Rates

Ex. DW3 Path: TopRelation:ForeignExchange:NationalBankOfPoland
Ex. DW3 Symbol: NBP.PLN.AUD
Granularity: Daily
Ex. Marketplace Feed:
Ex. Marketplace Key:


New Reports - Commodity DataServer and Marketplace


Central Bank of Russia

Morningstar now offers the following feed from the Central Bank of Russia:

 Daily Exchange Rates

Ex. DW3 Path:
Ex. DW3 Symbol:
Granularity: Daily
Ex. Marketplace Feed: BankOfRussia_DailyExchangeRates
Ex. Marketplace Key: Char Code

ERCOT

Morningstar now offers the following 2 feeds from ERCOT:

 Load Forecast Distribution Factors

Ex. DW3 Path:
Ex. DW3 Symbol:
Granularity: Hourly
Ex. Marketplace Feed: ERCOT_LoadForecastDistributionFactors
Ex. Marketplace Key: Substation, LoadID

 Hourly Resource Outage Capacity

Ex. DW3 Path:
Ex. DW3 Symbol:
Granularity: Hourly
Ex. Marketplace Feed: ERCOT_IRRHourlyResourceOutageCapacity
Ex. Marketplace Key: Hour of Report



GIE

Morningstar now offers the following feed from GIE:

 Daily Gas Storage Data by Country

Ex. DW3 Path:
Ex. DW3 Symbol:
Granularity: Daily
Ex. Marketplace Feed: GIE_DailyStorageData_Austria
Ex. Marketplace Key: Location




USDA

Morningstar now offers the following 4 feeds from USDA:

 Harvesting Progress Report

Ex. DW3 Path:
Ex. DW3 Symbol:
Granularity: Weekly
Ex. Marketplace Feed: USDA_CropProgressReport
Ex. Marketplace Key: Crop Report, State

 Crop Condition Report

Ex. DW3 Path:
Ex. DW3 Symbol:
Granularity: Weekly
Ex. Marketplace Feed: USDA_CropConditionReport
Ex. Marketplace Key: Crop Report, State

 Days Suitable for Field Work per Week Report

Ex. DW3 Path:
Ex. DW3 Symbol:
Granularity: Weekly
Ex. Marketplace Feed: USDA_DaysSuitableForWork
Ex. Marketplace Key: State

 Soil Condition Report

Ex. DW3 Path:
Ex. DW3 Symbol:
Granularity: Weekly
Ex. Marketplace Feed: USDA_SoilConditionReport
Ex. Marketplace Key: Soil Report, State




Commodities Research


New England Winter Outlook

The upcoming 2016-17 winter will be the second in the FERC-approved three-year winter reliability program, which incentivizes onsite oil storage and liquefied natural gas, or LNG, import contracting (there were two prior WRPs, but they were approved separately by FERC). After winter 2017-18, the compensation mechanism will move from the out-of-market WRP into the pay-for-performance capacity market. Because of this program, New England January-February is now correlated with NY Harbor fuel oil prices and West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, crude. Following the OPEC meeting and with the emergence of winter weather, fuel oil prices have rallied and put a bid on January-February Algonquin prices. Given increased Marcellus gas flows into New England via the Algonquin Incremental Market, or AIM, expansion, are prices too high? Possibly. In winter months, Algonquin monthly index prices are typically set by a small number of very cold days, when local distribution companies, or LDCs, bid up gas prices beyond the gas-to-oil switching price. How many days is the market pricing in Algonquin gas over fuel oil? Assuming a "baseload" Algonquin price of $6, or about $3.50 over current value for winter Tennessee Gas Pipeline, or TGP, Zone 4 and Millennium, the market is still pricing in the equivalent of 25 days in January-February out of a total of 59 days (Exhibit 1). In January-February 2015, Algonquin printed above fuel oil (New York plus $2 New England delivery) on only 16 days without the additional gas capacity from AIM. Also, the most liquidly traded cash product, Algonquin Citygates (non-G) will not include deliveries along the G lateral (Southeast Massachusetts) or J lateral (Boston), this limits upside for this product.

To read a sample report, click here

OPEC and NOPEC Cuts to Benefit U.S. Crude Exports

A year after the export ban was lifted, the volume of U.S. shipments overseas is slightly down compared with 2015. Export volumes depend on premiums for international crudes based on Brent over domestic grades based on West Texas Intermediate. If OPEC and NOPEC production cuts materialize in 2017, then higher prices will encourage new shale production. As soon as increased supplies of shale crude exceed domestic refinery demand, then the Brent premium over WTI will widen to encourage exports. This note reviews 2016 crude exports and prospects for increased shipments during 2017.

To read a sample report, click here


Commodities Research: Behind the Scenes

Interested to learn more about the data sources our research group leverages for its analysis?

As seen in our most recent notes above, we are pleased to offer information on the data sources used in the fundamental research write-ups we publish. By identifying this data, we enable you to validate our research and perform similar research on your own. We also make ourselves available to help you gain access and provide trials for data sets you may not already have access to. Your inquiries are confidential and all inquiries go to Morningstar. Your interest will not be passed along to any third-party without your prior consent.

If you are interested to learn more, please reach out to commoditydata-discovery@morningstar.com.


On the Horizon


ClipperData

ClipperData provides comprehensive data sets, analysis and commentary on global crude and refined product movements. Data sets include US import/export figures for crude oil, gasoline, distillates, and fuel oil, as well as imports from China and India, and Gulf and global storage figures.


EPEX Spot

EPEX SPOT is the exchange for the power spot markets at the heart of Europe. It covers Germany, France, United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Belgium, Austria, Switzerland and Luxembourg, which together represents 50% of European electricity consumption.


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